2000 President · NJ
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 7,217 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 40%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.13% · Republican 40.29%
D+15.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 56.126 − 40.291 = 15.835
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (15.835) = -1.834
- Absolute miss = |-1.834| = 1.834
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63564, race ID 837 (538 database).