2000 Senate · NM
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,656 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 35%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.70% · Republican 38.25%
D+23.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 35 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 61.701 − 38.254 = 23.447
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (23.447) = 2.553
- Absolute miss = |2.553| = 2.553
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63565, race ID 1702 (538 database).