2000 President · NM
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,657 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 44%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.91% · Republican 47.85%
D+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 47.909 − 47.847 = 0.062
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.062) = 4.939
- Absolute miss = |4.939| = 4.939
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63565, race ID 838 (538 database).