2000 Senate · NV
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,833 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 52%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.69% · Republican 55.09%
R+15.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 39.693 − 55.092 = -15.399
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-15.399) = 6.398
- Absolute miss = |6.398| = 6.398
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63566, race ID 1700 (538 database).