2000 Senate · NY
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 13,590 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%
D+12.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (12.039) = -7.038
- Absolute miss = |-7.038| = 7.038
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63567, race ID 1703 (538 database).