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2000 Senate · OH

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 10,956 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 59%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 59 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-24.061) = 1.061
  4. Absolute miss = |1.061| = 1.061

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63568, race ID 1705 (538 database).