2000 President · OH
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 10,975 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.44% · Republican 49.99%
R+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 46.440 − 49.986 = -3.546
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.546) = 0.546
- Absolute miss = |0.546| = 0.546
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63568, race ID 841 (538 database).