2000 President · OK
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 3,206 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 59%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.43% · Republican 60.31%
R+21.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 59 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 38.427 − 60.308 = -21.881
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-21.881) = -0.119
- Absolute miss = |-0.119| = 0.119
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63569, race ID 842 (538 database).