2000 Senate · TN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,165 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 62%
R+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.21% · Republican 65.10%
R+32.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 62 = -27.00
- Actual margin = 32.207 − 65.096 = -32.889
- Signed miss = -27.00 − (-32.889) = 5.889
- Absolute miss = |5.889| = 5.889
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63572, race ID 1708 (538 database).