2000 Senate · TX
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 17,907 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 31% · Republican 63%
R+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.31% · Republican 65.08%
R+32.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 31 − 63 = -32.00
- Actual margin = 32.308 − 65.076 = -32.768
- Signed miss = -32.00 − (-32.768) = 0.769
- Absolute miss = |0.769| = 0.769
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63573, race ID 1709 (538 database).