2000 President · TX
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 17,936 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 57%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.98% · Republican 59.30%
R+21.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 57 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 37.982 − 59.299 = -21.317
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-21.317) = 3.317
- Absolute miss = |3.317| = 3.317
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63573, race ID 849 (538 database).