2000 Senate · WI
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,163 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 38%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.54% · Republican 37.04%
D+24.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 38 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 61.543 − 37.036 = 24.507
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (24.507) = -3.507
- Absolute miss = |-3.507| = 3.507
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63575, race ID 1715 (538 database).