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2000 President · WI

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,168 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.220) = -0.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.220| = 0.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63575, race ID 854 (538 database).