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2000 Senate · MI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 626 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 53%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.48% · Republican 47.86%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 53 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.475 − 47.861 = 1.614
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (1.614) = -20.614
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.614| = 20.614

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63599, race ID 1694 (538 database).