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2000 President · national

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 3,750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 41%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%

D+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 41 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.492) = 4.508
  4. Absolute miss = |4.508| = 4.508

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63601, race ID 40 (538 database).