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2000 President · OR

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 1,352 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 43%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.96% · Republican 46.52%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 43 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.960 − 46.519 = 0.441
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.441) = -5.441
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.441| = 5.441

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63607, race ID 843 (538 database).