2000 Senate · ME
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 1,548 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 27% · Republican 66%
R+39.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.06% · Republican 68.94%
R+37.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 27 − 66 = -39.00
- Actual margin = 31.059 − 68.941 = -37.882
- Signed miss = -39.00 − (-37.882) = -1.117
- Absolute miss = |-1.117| = 1.117
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63610, race ID 1691 (538 database).