2000 President · NY
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 781 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 37%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.64% · Republican 32.45%
D+24.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 37 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 56.639 − 32.450 = 24.189
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (24.189) = -13.189
- Absolute miss = |-13.189| = 13.189
The poll overstated the Republican by 13.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63611, race ID 840 (538 database).