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2000 Senate · NV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 817 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 54%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.69% · Republican 55.09%

R+15.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 54 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.693 − 55.092 = -15.399
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-15.399) = -1.602
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.602| = 1.602

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63614, race ID 1700 (538 database).