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2000 President · NV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 817 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 49%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.98% · Republican 49.52%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 49 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.976 − 49.522 = -3.546
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-3.546) = -8.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.454| = 8.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63614, race ID 839 (538 database).