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2000 President · VA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.44% · Republican 52.47%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.436 − 52.474 = -8.038
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-8.038) = -3.962
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.962| = 3.962

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63619, race ID 851 (538 database).