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2000 President · WI

Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 46%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 46 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (0.220) = -7.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.220| = 7.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6362, race ID 854 (538 database).