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2013 Senate · NJ

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2013-10-02 (14 days before the election) · 702 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 29%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.92% · Republican 44.02%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 29 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.924 − 44.020 = 10.904
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (10.904) = 5.096
  4. Absolute miss = |5.096| = 5.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63629, race ID 1471 (538 database).