2000 Senate · MD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 30%
D+29.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.18% · Republican 36.73%
D+26.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 30 = 29.00
- Actual margin = 63.178 − 36.734 = 26.444
- Signed miss = 29.00 − (26.444) = 2.556
- Absolute miss = |2.556| = 2.556
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6363, race ID 1692 (538 database).