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2000 President · MD

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 40%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 40.19%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.488 − 40.185 = 16.303
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (16.303) = -8.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.304| = 8.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6363, race ID 826 (538 database).