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2000 Senate · DE

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 776 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.53% · Republican 43.70%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.526 − 43.698 = 11.828
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (11.828) = -8.827
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.827| = 8.827

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63637, race ID 1686 (538 database).