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2000 President · NJ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 594 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 39%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.13% · Republican 40.29%

D+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 39 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.126 − 40.291 = 15.835
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (15.835) = -9.834
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.834| = 9.834

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63638, race ID 837 (538 database).