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2000 Senate · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 577 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 45%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (4.852) = -7.851
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.851| = 7.851

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63640, race ID 1687 (538 database).