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2000 President · MI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 787 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.28% · Republican 46.15%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.280 − 46.146 = 5.134
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (5.134) = -6.134
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.134| = 6.134

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63645, race ID 828 (538 database).