1998 Senate · IN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 977 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 64% · Republican 33%
D+31.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.72% · Republican 34.79%
D+28.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 64 − 33 = 31.00
- Actual margin = 63.719 − 34.793 = 28.926
- Signed miss = 31.00 − (28.926) = 2.075
- Absolute miss = |2.075| = 2.075
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63647, race ID 1729 (538 database).