1998 Senate · WA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,523 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 45%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.41% · Republican 41.59%
D+16.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 58.414 − 41.586 = 16.828
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (16.828) = -8.828
- Absolute miss = |-8.828| = 8.828
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63651, race ID 1749 (538 database).