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2000 President · national

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 3,750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 49%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%

D+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 49 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (0.492) = -9.492
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.492| = 9.492

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63655, race ID 40 (538 database).