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2000 President · WA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 909 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.16% · Republican 44.58%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.158 − 44.579 = 5.579
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (5.579) = -6.580
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.580| = 6.580

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63656, race ID 853 (538 database).