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2000 Senate · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 39%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.54% · Republican 37.04%

D+24.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.543 − 37.036 = 24.507
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (24.507) = -7.507
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.507| = 7.507

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63657, race ID 1715 (538 database).