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2000 President · MA

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 28%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.13% · Republican 32.13%

D+27.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 28 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.125 − 32.132 = 26.993
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (26.993) = -2.993
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.993| = 2.993

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6366, race ID 825 (538 database).