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2000 President · MA

KRC Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 28%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.13% · Republican 32.13%

D+27.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 28 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.125 − 32.132 = 26.993
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (26.993) = -0.993
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.993| = 0.993

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6367, race ID 825 (538 database).