2002 Senate · LA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-12-03 (4 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 45%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.70% · Republican 48.30%
D+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 51.700 − 48.300 = 3.400
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.400) = -1.401
- Absolute miss = |-1.401| = 1.401
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63682, race ID 1660 (538 database).