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2013 Senate · MA

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2013-06-04 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.80% · Republican 44.60%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.800 − 44.601 = 10.199
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (10.199) = -9.199
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.199| = 9.199

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63696, race ID 1472 (538 database).