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2000 President · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.13% · Republican 40.29%

D+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.126 − 40.291 = 15.835
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (15.835) = -3.834
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.834| = 3.834

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6370, race ID 837 (538 database).