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2010 Senate · MA

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-01-15 (4 days before the election) · 565 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41.2% · Republican 50.8%

R+9.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.09% · Republican 51.86%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.2 − 50.8 = -9.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.095 − 51.860 = -4.765
  3. Signed miss = -9.60 − (-4.765) = -4.836
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.836| = 4.836

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63700, race ID 1526 (538 database).