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2000 President · MD

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 41%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 40.19%

D+16.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.488 − 40.185 = 16.303
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (16.303) = -5.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.304| = 5.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63729, race ID 826 (538 database).