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2000 President · NJ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.13% · Republican 40.29%

D+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.126 − 40.291 = 15.835
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (15.835) = -11.834
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.834| = 11.834

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63733, race ID 837 (538 database).