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2000 Senate · RI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 59%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.15% · Republican 56.88%

R+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 59 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.145 − 56.877 = -15.732
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-15.732) = -10.269
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.269| = 10.269

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63742, race ID 1707 (538 database).