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2000 Senate · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 530 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.84% · Republican 36.59%

D+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.843 − 36.587 = 19.256
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (19.256) = -7.256
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.256| = 7.256

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63744, race ID 1684 (538 database).