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2000 President · NV

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.98% · Republican 49.52%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.976 − 49.522 = -3.546
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-3.546) = -1.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.454| = 1.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63745, race ID 839 (538 database).