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2000 President · PA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.01% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.44%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.01 − 48 = 0.01
  2. Actual margin = 50.608 − 46.438 = 4.170
  3. Signed miss = 0.01 − (4.170) = -4.160
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.160| = 4.160

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63749, race ID 844 (538 database).