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2000 President · VA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 53%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.44% · Republican 52.47%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.436 − 52.474 = -8.038
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-8.038) = -2.962
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.962| = 2.962

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63752, race ID 851 (538 database).