Skip to content

2013 Governor · VA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2013-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 36%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.74% · Republican 45.22%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 36 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.736 − 45.217 = 2.519
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.519) = 4.482
  4. Absolute miss = |4.482| = 4.482

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63757, race ID 1257 (538 database).