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2013 Governor · NJ

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2013-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 54%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.19% · Republican 60.30%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 54 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.191 − 60.302 = -22.111
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-22.111) = 4.111
  4. Absolute miss = |4.111| = 4.111

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63758, race ID 1256 (538 database).