1998 Senate · KY
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 51%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.16% · Republican 49.75%
R+0.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 49.157 − 49.748 = -0.591
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-0.591) = -6.409
- Absolute miss = |-6.409| = 6.409
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63759, race ID 1732 (538 database).